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Showing posts from January, 2022

The 2008 Housing Market Crash: A Prediction That Came True

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  Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital, predicted the housing market crash of 2008. In 2005, the told Kudlow & Company: “The basic problem with the U.S. economy is that we have too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production and savings. And what’s going to happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming” (Sterbenz, 2013).  The Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 is attributed mainly to the collapse of what is known as the “subprime” mortgage market. Subprime mortgages are a type of high-risk loan made out to borrowers with low credit ratings and inadequate savings, also known as “subprime borrowers” (Field, 2021; Kosakowski, 2021). The subprime mortgage market grew significantly at the start of 1999 as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (U.S. government-sponsored mortgage lenders) offered home loans to subprime borrowers. These loans were adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) where initial payments are much lower than those under a fixed-ra...

Scenario Planning vs. Traditional Forecasting

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  Foretelling the future is an impossibility, yet playing out potential futures in an organized and strategic manner can have extraordinary benefits for organizations willing to put in the time and effort in doing so. Wade (2012) states the future cannot be predicted because there are too many forces (political, economical, environmental, societal, and technological) interacting with each other, creating the uncertainty of the future.  Scenario planning was developed by the U.S. military to run research and development (R&D) efforts looking out into the future, up to 20 years (Ali & Luther, 2020). It is also known as scenario analysis or scenario thinking, a method that allows organizations to plan for the future by means of formulating different scenarios or events, and developing strategies or responses for each of those events in anticipation of their potential impacts to an organization, whether positive or negative (Tang, n.d.). Wade (2012) explains scenario plann...

Saccharin: An Accidental Discovery

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  There are several accidental discoveries that made an impact in the world such as penicillin, anesthesia, the microwave, Viagra (Simmons, 2021), sticky-notes, and many others. Among them is saccharin, a low-calorie artificial sweetener discovered in 1879 by researcher Constantin Fahlberg and professor Ira Remsen at a Johns Hopkins University laboratory (How Stuff Works, n.d; Simmons, 2021).  In 1880, Fahlberg and Remsen published the discovery together, but in 1884, Fahlberg patented saccharin without Remsen and mass-produced the compound (How Stuff Works, n.d; Simmons, 2021).  Fahlberg was working on testing the purity of a sugar shipment that had been impounded by the U.S. Government when the discovery was made. The scientist took a lunch break and ate a bread roll that tasted significantly sweet. Fahlberg realized that a chemical had been spilled on his hands while testing the sugar shipment, and without washed hands, the scientist proceeded to eat lunch. Fahlberg we...

Think Tanks

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  Lewis (2019) describes think tanks, also known as think factories, idea factories, reflection pools, or policy institutes, as organizations where scholars representing different disciplines assemble to think without any restrictions, conduct research associated with specific issues, ideas, and policies (Aly, 2019; Whittenhauer, n.d.).   Think tanks conduct research, generate ideas, debate issues, and monitor public policy by means of implementing various strategies, which are associated with the business model utilized by the think tank, such as consulting, advocacy, research, and contract efforts (Lewis). There are four types of think tanks as follows: (1) Ideological or advocacy tanks are organizations where problem solving is rooted on an ideological philosophy, (2) Specialist tanks are institutes with a specific focus or theme, such as the environment or foreign policy, (3) Subnational tanks are government-related entities that typically work on specific state policies, ...

Group Decision-Making: The Delphi & Nominal Group Techniques

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Group decision-making is a process where multiple individuals consider, analyze, and evaluate alternatives in an either structured or unstructured format, then arrive to an appropriate solution to a problem (Barnett, n.d.). Although decision-making groups and teams are often considered to be interchangeable, groups tend to have a leader or moderator, while leadership responsibilities are shared in team settings. Also, accountability rests on individual members of a group, but in teams it lies in the collective as well as in the individual (Barnett).  There are many group decision-making methods, each designed to improve and enhance the process of identifying solutions (Barnett, n.d.). Two of those methods are nominal group technique (NGT), and the delphi technique.  In the NGT, group members each propose a written list of alternatives or ideas. Once all the alternatives have been submitted and captured, the group discusses each one as a means of assigning a rank or a rating....

Learning Analytics & Incubators in Higher Education

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  ANALYTICS TECHNOLOGIES Learning Analytics in Higher Education  The Horizon report (Alexander et al., 2019) identifies analytics technologies such as learning analytics, as a key component in higher education initiatives that drive student success, and an essential element of academic institutions’ decision-making and strategic planning. Alexander et al. states that learning analytics done right can bring about an institutional transformation that enriches educational experiences and success for both, students and faculty. Ifenthaler (2015) as cited in Ifenthaler and Yau (2020), defines learning analytics as “the use, assessment, elicitation and analysis of static and dynamic information about learners and learning environments, for the near real-time modeling, prediction and optimization of learning processes, and learning environments, as well as for educational decision-making.”  Learning analytics in higher education offers many benefits, but also faces positive and ...